New York City FC 2-1 New England Revolution — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.03
Over 2.5
59%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.73
No
42%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.68
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
31%
3.01
6+ Goals
13%
9.85
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.01 — our 31% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.13
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.9
X/1
14%
4.29
X/2
7%
9.76
X/X
8%
5.47
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.7
2/2
13%
7.52
2/X
7%
15.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.7 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-7.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.2pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
45%
-4.6pp
59%
Over 2.5
55%
+4.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
54%
+3.8pp
42%
BTTS No
46%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York City FC EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY New England Revolution EU Bookmakers 23%
+3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
2.05/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/2.00
+12% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
371 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 74%
31.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
16.9 Crosses 16.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York City FC
2W-3D-1L
AWAY New England Revolution
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.72 xG 0.71
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
431 Passes 332
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2024 New England Revolution New England Revolution 1-1 HT 1-1 New York City FC New York City FC CONLK
26.05.2024 New England Revolution New England Revolution 0-1 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
14.04.2024 New York City FC New York City FC 2-0 HT 0-0 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
03.06.2023 New York City FC New York City FC 0-0 HT 0-0 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
02.04.2023 New England Revolution New England Revolution 1-1 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
05.09.2022 New England Revolution New England Revolution 3-0 HT 2-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York City FC
2-1
AWAY New England Revolution
1.15 xG 0.53
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 9
341 Passes 406
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 34
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH New York City FC vs New England Revolution
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York City FC nicked a narrow win over New England Revolution 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had New York City FC as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, New York City FC had 46% of the ball to New England Revolution's 54%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 1.15 to 0.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York City FC had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for New York City FC and 0.83 for New England Revolution.

What was the final score of New York City FC vs New England Revolution?

New York City FC 2-1 New England Revolution in the USA - Major League on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York City FC vs New England Revolution?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York City FC win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split New York City FC 49%, draw 25%, New England Revolution 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New York City FC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (New York City FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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