FC Cincinnati 2-1 Chicago Fire — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 6 Jul 2025

📅06/07/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.59
Over 2.5
55%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.42
2-3 Goals
36%
2.0
4-5 Goals
28%
2.54
6+ Goals
13%
5.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.47
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
17%
4.98
X/2
8%
8.11
X/X
8%
6.51
2/1
7%
19.65
2/2
13%
5.18
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
13.9
Value flag · 2/X at 13.9 — our 10% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-1.7pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.9pp
27%
Away Win
27%
-0.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
35%
+9.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
65%
-9.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-9.6pp
45%
BTTS No
36%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +8%
1.56/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.89
-19% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
386 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 81%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
14.1 Crosses 14.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Cincinnati
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Chicago Fire
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.45 xG 1.45
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
359 Passes 328
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
20.04.2025 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 2-3 HT 1-2 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
18.07.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-1 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
03.03.2024 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-2 HT 1-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
04.06.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
19.03.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 3-3 HT 2-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
02.10.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-3 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Cincinnati
2-1
AWAY Chicago Fire
0.99 xG 0.78
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 10
374 Passes 401
88% Pass Accuracy 87%
13 Box Touches 20
7 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati edged past Chicago Fire 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FC Cincinnati as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, FC Cincinnati had 47% of the ball to Chicago Fire's 53%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 0.99 to 0.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for FC Cincinnati and 1.67 for Chicago Fire.

What was the final score of FC Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire?

FC Cincinnati 2-1 Chicago Fire in the USA - Major League on 06/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Cincinnati win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split FC Cincinnati 48%, draw 25%, Chicago Fire 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Cincinnati), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Cincinnati) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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