Chicago Fire 2-3 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.0
Over 2.5
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.66
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.09
6+ Goals
12%
10.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.15
1/2
8%
30.0
1/X
11%
12.3
X/1
9%
5.39
X/2
12%
6.8
X/X
8%
4.93
2/1
8%
24.65
2/2
16%
4.53
2/X
8%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-4.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
36%
Away Win
31%
+5.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.9pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 34%
-8% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +21%
1.39/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.67
-9% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 80%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
19.0 Crosses 11.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chicago Fire
2W-1D-3L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.30 xG 1.44
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
320 Passes 347
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
18.07.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-1 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
03.03.2024 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-2 HT 1-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
04.06.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
19.03.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 3-3 HT 2-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
02.10.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-3 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
15.05.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-2 HT 0-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chicago Fire
2-3
AWAY FC Cincinnati
2.34 xG 1.11
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 1
445 Passes 313
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
33 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati edged past Chicago Fire 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day FC Cincinnati made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Chicago Fire had 57% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 43%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 2.34 to 1.11 — the balance of chances actually favoured Chicago Fire.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Chicago Fire and 1.67 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati?

Chicago Fire 2-3 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chicago Fire win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Chicago Fire 37%, draw 27%, FC Cincinnati 36%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Chicago Fire) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chicago Fire) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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