Philadelphia Union 3-0 Atlanta United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.96
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.17
2-3 Goals
44%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
2.85
6+ Goals
11%
8.33
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.73
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
17%
5.06
X/2
9%
7.56
X/X
10%
5.47
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
22.45
2/2
13%
5.09
2/X
7%
13.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.45 — our 11% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
47%
+2.6pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.9pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-0.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.8pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -12%
1.76/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.62
-7% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
354 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 80%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
20.3 Crosses 16.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Philadelphia Union
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Atlanta United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.52 xG 1.44
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
266 Passes 368
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2024 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-1 HT 0-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
14.04.2024 Atlanta United Atlanta United 2-2 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
05.10.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 3-2 HT 3-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
02.07.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 2-0 HT 1-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
17.09.2022 Atlanta United Atlanta United 0-0 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
01.09.2022 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 4-1 HT 2-1 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Philadelphia Union
3-0
AWAY Atlanta United
1.34 xG 0.81
29% Ball Possession 71%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
167 Passes 547
67% Pass Accuracy 86%
28 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Philadelphia Union cruised past Atlanta United 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Philadelphia Union as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Philadelphia Union had 29% of the ball to Atlanta United's 71%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.34 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Philadelphia Union had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.33 for Atlanta United.

What was the final score of Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United?

Philadelphia Union 3-0 Atlanta United in the USA - Major League on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Philadelphia Union 50%, draw 23%, Atlanta United 27%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Philadelphia Union), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Philadelphia Union) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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