FC Cincinnati 0-1 Chicago Fire — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 18 Jul 2024

📅18/07/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
51%
-2.2pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.6pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.9pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / +4%
1.48/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.79
-4% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
380 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
13.9 Crosses 15.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Cincinnati
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Chicago Fire
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.70 xG 1.42
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
313 Passes 353
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.03.2024 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-2 HT 1-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
04.06.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
19.03.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 3-3 HT 2-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
02.10.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-3 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
15.05.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-2 HT 0-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
21.10.2021 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-4 HT 2-2 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Cincinnati
0-1
AWAY Chicago Fire
1.53 xG 1.56
63% Ball Possession 37%
19 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 8
8 Corners 3
532 Passes 277
88% Pass Accuracy 77%
40 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chicago Fire squeezed past FC Cincinnati 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was FC Cincinnati at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Cincinnati had 63% of the ball to Chicago Fire's 37%, shots finished 19-16, expected goals 1.53 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for FC Cincinnati and 2.00 for Chicago Fire.

What was the final score of FC Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire?

FC Cincinnati 0-1 Chicago Fire in the USA - Major League on 18/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Cincinnati win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split FC Cincinnati 49%, draw 26%, Chicago Fire 25%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FC Cincinnati) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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