Carabobo 2-1 Estudiantes De Merida — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Venezuela - Premier League, 6 Jul 2025

📅06/07/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.82
Draw
33%
3.28
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
12%
X/1
22%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
51%
-11.8pp
32%
Draw
27%
+5.3pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+6.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.9pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carabobo EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida EU Bookmakers 25%
+10% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -8%
1.34/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.48
-16% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -25%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
300 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 74%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
19.7 Crosses 19.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carabobo
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.42 xG 0.66
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
263 Passes 337
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 4
26.01.2025 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 0-2 HT 0-1 Carabobo Carabobo VEN
18.11.2024 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 0-3 HT 0-1 Carabobo Carabobo VEN
22.09.2024 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 0-0 HT 0-0 Carabobo Carabobo VEN
24.03.2024 Carabobo Carabobo 1-0 HT 0-0 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN
22.06.2023 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 1-1 HT 0-1 Carabobo Carabobo VEN
21.05.2023 Carabobo Carabobo 2-0 HT 1-0 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carabobo
2-1
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida
1.61 xG 0.21
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 2
323 Passes 266
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 11
44 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Carabobo vs Estudiantes De Merida
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carabobo squeezed past Estudiantes De Merida 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 32% / 28% — and on the day Carabobo made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Carabobo had 55% of the ball to Estudiantes De Merida's 45%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 1.61 to 0.21 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Carabobo's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Carabobo had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Carabobo and 0.17 for Estudiantes De Merida.

What was the final score of Carabobo vs Estudiantes De Merida?

Carabobo 2-1 Estudiantes De Merida in the Venezuela - Premier League on 06/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carabobo vs Estudiantes De Merida?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carabobo win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Carabobo 39%, draw 32%, Estudiantes De Merida 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Carabobo) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Carabobo) ✗ Under 2.5
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