Caerau (Ely) 2-2 Carmarthen Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 6 Aug 2024

Caerau (Ely)
2-2 HT 1-2
Carmarthen Town
📅06/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Wales - FAW Championship – 2024/2025

Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.12
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.63
Over 2.5
52%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.39
No
46%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
43%
+1.4pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.3pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-1.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
34%
+13.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
66%
-13.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
68%
-13.5pp
46%
BTTS No
32%
+13.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Caerau (Ely) v Carmarthen Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caerau (Ely) EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Carmarthen Town EU Bookmakers 37%
+43% / +43% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
2.94/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.30
+54% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +32%
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
379 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caerau (Ely)
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Carmarthen Town
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
The Meetings
10.02.2024 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) GALFAW
22.09.2023 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 2-4 HT 0-3 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town GALFAW
POST-MATCH Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caerau (Ely) and Carmarthen Town couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Caerau (Ely) at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Carmarthen Town led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Caerau (Ely) and 2.50 for Carmarthen Town.

What was the final score of Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town?

Caerau (Ely) 2-2 Carmarthen Town in the Wales - FAW Championship on 06/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caerau (Ely) vs Carmarthen Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caerau (Ely) win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Caerau (Ely) 45%, draw 23%, Carmarthen Town 32%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caerau (Ely)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caerau (Ely)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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