Carmarthen Town 1-1 Caerau (Ely) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 10 Feb 2024

Carmarthen Town
1-1 HT 1-0
Caerau (Ely)
📅10/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Wales - FAW Championship – 2023/2024

Carmarthen Town vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.92
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
32%
2.89
Over 2.5
68%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
66%
1.39
No
34%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
28%
4-5 Goals
35%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
5%
X/X
6%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
48%
+3.3pp
20%
Draw
22%
-2.3pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-1.1pp
32%
Under 2.5
31%
+0.6pp
68%
Over 2.5
69%
-0.6pp
66%
BTTS Yes
68%
-1.9pp
34%
BTTS No
32%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Carmarthen Town v Caerau (Ely) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carmarthen Town EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Caerau (Ely) EU Bookmakers 34%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +53% / +53%
2.32/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 5.06/2.06
+8% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
305 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 81%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Carmarthen Town vs Caerau (Ely) Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carmarthen Town
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Caerau (Ely)
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
The Meetings
22.09.2023 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 2-4 HT 0-3 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town GALFAW
POST-MATCH Carmarthen Town vs Caerau (Ely)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carmarthen Town and Caerau (Ely) shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Carmarthen Town at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (66%) landed while over 2.5 goals (68%) missed.

What was the final score of Carmarthen Town vs Caerau (Ely)?

Carmarthen Town 1-1 Caerau (Ely) in the Wales - FAW Championship on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carmarthen Town vs Caerau (Ely)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carmarthen Town win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Carmarthen Town 51%, draw 20%, Caerau (Ely) 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Carmarthen Town), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Carmarthen Town) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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