Tochigi City 3-2 Matsumoto Yamaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 6 Sep 2025

📅06/09/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.0
Over 2.5
45%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
24%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-6.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+7.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
46%
+8.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
54%
-8.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.5pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tochigi City EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 25%
-31% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.38/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.43
-22% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
411 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.0 Crosses 13.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tochigi City
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
6 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 7
98 Passes 321
66% Pass Accuracy 75%
12 Crosses 33
0 Yellow Cards 1
20.04.2025 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-1 HT 0-0 Tochigi City Tochigi City JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tochigi City
3-2
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
50% Ball Possession 50%
20 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
267 Passes 274
73% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tochigi City vs Matsumoto Yamaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tochigi City squeezed past Matsumoto Yamaga 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tochigi City as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tochigi City had 50% of the ball to Matsumoto Yamaga's 50%, shots finished 20-7.

What was the final score of Tochigi City vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Tochigi City 3-2 Matsumoto Yamaga in the Japan - J3 League on 06/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tochigi City vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tochigi City win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Tochigi City 48%, draw 24%, Matsumoto Yamaga 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tochigi City), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tochigi City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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