Girona 2-1 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 6 Oct 2024

Girona
2-1 HT 1-1
Athletic Bilbao
📅06/10/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Girona vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
25%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.08
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.81
6+ Goals
9%
16.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 29% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.27
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
10%
5.02
X/2
12%
6.27
X/X
17%
4.29
2/1
12%
28.0
2/2
7%
4.49
2/X
5%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
41%
+5.2pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.3pp
25%
Away Win
31%
-5.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Girona v Athletic Bilbao — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Girona EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 34%
-3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -10%
1.50/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.29
+11% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 80%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
20.1 Crosses 19.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Girona vs Athletic Bilbao Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Girona
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.04 xG 1.44
52% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
389 Passes 339
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 31
15 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.02.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 3-2 HT 1-0 Girona Girona İS1
27.11.2023 Girona Girona 1-1 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
26.02.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-3 HT 1-3 Girona Girona İS1
04.11.2022 Girona Girona 2-1 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
29.03.2019 Girona Girona 1-2 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
10.12.2018 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-0 HT 0-0 Girona Girona İS1

Girona 2-1 Athletic Bilbao — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Girona
2-1
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
2.00 xG 3.10
65% Ball Possession 35%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 1
507 Passes 250
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
41 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Girona vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Girona edged past Athletic Bilbao 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Girona as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Girona had 65% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 35%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 2.00 to 3.10 — on chances, Athletic Bilbao could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Girona and 1.67 for Athletic Bilbao.

What was the final score of Girona vs Athletic Bilbao?

Girona 2-1 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Primera Liga on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Girona vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Girona win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Girona 46%, draw 29%, Athletic Bilbao 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Girona) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Girona) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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