Zürich 1-1 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 6 Oct 2024

Zürich
1-1 HT 1-1
Lugano
📅06/10/2024 · 🕒15:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Switzerland - Super League – 2024/2025

Zürich vs Lugano Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.27
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.61
6+ Goals
11%
14.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.27 — our 29% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.25
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
9%
12.55
X/1
12%
5.09
X/2
14%
6.31
X/X
9%
4.41
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
13%
4.41
2/X
8%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-1.3pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.2pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+3.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.2pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Zürich v Lugano — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zürich EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +19%
1.25/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.37
-7% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
320 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 74%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
17.2 Crosses 16.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6

Zürich vs Lugano Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zürich
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Lugano
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.07 xG 1.31
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
280 Passes 363
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.05.2024 Zürich Zürich 2-1 HT 1-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
25.02.2024 Lugano Lugano 2-0 HT 1-0 Zürich Zürich İSV
12.11.2023 Lugano Lugano 0-3 HT 0-2 Zürich Zürich İSV
05.08.2023 Zürich Zürich 3-0 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
29.05.2023 Zürich Zürich 2-3 HT 0-2 Lugano Lugano İSV
11.03.2023 Lugano Lugano 2-0 HT 2-0 Zürich Zürich İSV

Zürich 1-1 Lugano — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zürich
1-1
AWAY Lugano
0.53 xG 1.17
34% Ball Possession 66%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 7
179 Passes 435
70% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 30
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Zürich vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zürich and Lugano couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Zürich had 34% of the ball to Lugano's 66%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.53 to 1.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Zürich and 1.33 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Zürich vs Lugano?

Zürich 1-1 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zürich vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zürich win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Zürich 40%, draw 26%, Lugano 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Zürich) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Zürich) ✓ Under 2.5
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