St. Pauli II 1-4 Hamburg II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
2.43
Over 2.5
65%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%
1.46
No
35%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
18%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
+0.1pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.7pp
41%
Away Win
44%
-2.8pp
35%
Under 2.5
38%
-2.8pp
65%
Over 2.5
62%
+2.8pp
65%
BTTS Yes
64%
+0.7pp
35%
BTTS No
36%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli II EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Hamburg II EU Bookmakers 48%
+3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +11%
1.39/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.22/1.79
+1% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -29%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli II
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Hamburg II
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
31.03.2024 Hamburg II Hamburg II 2-0 HT 0-0 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II ALMBÖL
30.09.2023 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II 0-1 HT 0-0 Hamburg II Hamburg II ALMBÖL
21.04.2023 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II 2-4 HT 1-1 Hamburg II Hamburg II ALMBÖL
14.10.2022 Hamburg II Hamburg II 5-1 HT 3-0 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II ALMBÖL
24.10.2021 Hamburg II Hamburg II 2-2 HT 2-0 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II ALMBÖL
18.08.2021 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II 0-1 HT 0-1 Hamburg II Hamburg II ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH St. Pauli II vs Hamburg II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hamburg II ran out comfortable winners over St. Pauli II 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hamburg II as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (65%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hamburg II led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for St. Pauli II and 2.50 for Hamburg II.

What was the final score of St. Pauli II vs Hamburg II?

St. Pauli II 1-4 Hamburg II in the Germany - Regional League on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli II vs Hamburg II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hamburg II win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli II 32%, draw 27%, Hamburg II 41%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hamburg II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hamburg II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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