Cuiaba 2-0 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 6 Oct 2024

Cuiaba
2-0 HT 2-0
Sao Paulo
📅06/10/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Cuiaba vs Sao Paulo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.29
Draw
35%
2.77
Away
31%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.36
Over 2.5
34%
2.98
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.44
No
61%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
1.84
2-3 Goals
36%
1.9
4-5 Goals
16%
7.76
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.69
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.3
X/1
14%
6.26
X/2
12%
4.39
X/X
18%
3.08
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
11%
3.48
2/X
9%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
27%
+7.0pp
35%
Draw
33%
+1.8pp
31%
Away Win
40%
-8.7pp
66%
Under 2.5
70%
-3.7pp
34%
Over 2.5
30%
+3.7pp
39%
BTTS Yes
37%
+1.8pp
61%
BTTS No
63%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cuiaba v Sao Paulo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cuiaba EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 43%
-7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -14%
1.24/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.08
-8% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -14%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
287 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 82%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
19.9 Crosses 20.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

Cuiaba vs Sao Paulo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cuiaba
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.16 xG 1.13
32% Ball Possession 68%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
220 Passes 530
76% Pass Accuracy 89%
14 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.06.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-1 HT 0-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
27.11.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
23.07.2023 Cuiaba Cuiaba 2-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
05.09.2022 Cuiaba Cuiaba 1-1 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
15.05.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 0-1 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
12.10.2021 Cuiaba Cuiaba 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1

Cuiaba 2-0 Sao Paulo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cuiaba
2-0
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.90 xG 0.48
22% Ball Possession 78%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
136 Passes 649
68% Pass Accuracy 90%
16 Box Touches 25
9 Crosses 39
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cuiaba vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cuiaba saw off Sao Paulo 2-0.

Our pre-match split (34% / 35% / 31%) promised a tight game; Cuiaba found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Cuiaba had 22% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 78%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 0.90 to 0.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cuiaba had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Cuiaba and 0.67 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Cuiaba vs Sao Paulo?

Cuiaba 2-0 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cuiaba vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Cuiaba 34%, draw 35%, Sao Paulo 31%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Draw) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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