Vasco da Gama 1-1 Juventude — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.75
Over 2.5
43%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.93
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.98
6+ Goals
8%
18.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.93 — our 34% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.27
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.0
X/1
13%
3.88
X/2
8%
9.26
X/X
14%
4.6
2/1
10%
25.5
2/2
12%
7.61
2/X
8%
15.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
54%
-9.9pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.7pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+7.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
53%
+4.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
47%
-4.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.7pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventude EU Bookmakers 23%
-14% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +3%
1.72/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.40
-10% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
351 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 78%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
30.0 Crosses 17.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Juventude
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.32 xG 1.34
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
290 Passes 370
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.06.2024 Juventude Juventude 2-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
07.11.2009 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-1 HT 1-0 Juventude Juventude BR2
01.08.2009 Juventude Juventude 1-2 HT 1-2 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR2
04.10.2007 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
08.07.2007 Juventude Juventude 2-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
12.11.2006 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-1 HT 1-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
1-1
AWAY Juventude
1.24 xG 1.55
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
318 Passes 241
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 35
14 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Juventude
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama and Juventude couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Vasco da Gama at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 54% of the ball to Juventude's 46%, shots finished 16-17, expected goals 1.24 to 1.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Juventude led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.33 for Juventude.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Juventude?

Vasco da Gama 1-1 Juventude in the Brazil - Serie A on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Juventude?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 44%, draw 29%, Juventude 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Vasco da Gama), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vasco da Gama) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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