Bahia 0-2 Flamengo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 6 Oct 2024

Bahia
0-2 HT 0-1
Flamengo
📅06/10/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Bahia vs Flamengo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.83
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.12
6+ Goals
9%
19.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.83 — our 30% vs market 29.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
3.88
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1 EV+ ✗
23%
5.43
X/2
13%
5.36
X/X
14%
4.2
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
13%
3.82
2/X
6%
13.45
Value flag · X/1 at 5.43 — our 23% vs market 14.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
37%
+4.8pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.4pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-3.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.7pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Flamengo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Flamengo EU Bookmakers 39%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.39/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.24
+29% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -16%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
308 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 81%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
20.8 Crosses 15.7
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Bahia vs Flamengo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Flamengo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.86 xG 1.47
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
405 Passes 384
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.09.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BRK
29.08.2024 Bahia Bahia 0-1 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BRK
21.06.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 2-1 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
30.09.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
13.05.2023 Bahia Bahia 2-3 HT 1-3 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
12.11.2021 Flamengo Flamengo 3-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1

Bahia 0-2 Flamengo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
0-2
AWAY Flamengo
0.82 xG 2.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
381 Passes 454
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
9 Box Touches 30
10 Crosses 12
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Flamengo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo got the better of Bahia 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Bahia at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Bahia had 46% of the ball to Flamengo's 54%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 0.82 to 2.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Flamengo led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Bahia and 1.83 for Flamengo.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Flamengo?

Bahia 0-2 Flamengo in the Brazil - Serie A on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Flamengo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Bahia 41%, draw 26%, Flamengo 32%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Bahia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bahia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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