Parnu JK Vaprus 3-1 FC Kuressaare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
42%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
43%
-9.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
42%
Away Win
31%
+11.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.1pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Kuressaare EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +5%
1.10/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.31
-22% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
268 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
2W-2D-2L
AWAY FC Kuressaare
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.07.2024 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 1-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
28.05.2024 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 2-2 HT 2-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
17.03.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 3-2 HT 0-1 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
11.11.2023 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 1-0 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
17.09.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 3-1 HT 1-0 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
03.05.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-2 HT 0-0 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
3-1
AWAY FC Kuressaare
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Kuressaare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parnu JK Vaprus saw off FC Kuressaare 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was FC Kuressaare at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Parnu JK Vaprus had 58% of the ball to FC Kuressaare's 42%, shots finished 12-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Parnu JK Vaprus and 1.50 for FC Kuressaare.

What was the final score of Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Kuressaare?

Parnu JK Vaprus 3-1 FC Kuressaare in the Estonia - Premium League on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Kuressaare?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Kuressaare win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Parnu JK Vaprus 34%, draw 24%, FC Kuressaare 42%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FC Kuressaare) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Kuressaare) ✓ BTTS Yes
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