Citizen AA 2-2 South China — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒08:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
46%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.51
Over 2.5
52%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.43
No
48%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
12%
1/X
9%
X/1
8%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
25%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
34%
-5.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
46%
Away Win
42%
+3.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
36%
+11.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
64%
-12.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
66%
-14.0pp
48%
BTTS No
34%
+14.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Citizen AA EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY South China EU Bookmakers 46%
-30% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.10/2.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/0.89
-10% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +25%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
312 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Citizen AA
2W-2D-2L
AWAY South China
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.01.2024 South China South China 2-4 HT 0-2 Citizen AA Citizen AA HK2
14.01.2024 Citizen AA Citizen AA 2-2 HT 1-0 South China South China HK2
19.02.2023 South China South China 1-2 HT 1-1 Citizen AA Citizen AA HK2
13.11.2022 Citizen AA Citizen AA 1-1 HT 0-1 South China South China HK2
12.12.2021 South China South China 4-0 HT 1-0 Citizen AA Citizen AA HK2
01.03.2015 South China South China 1-0 HT 1-0 Citizen AA Citizen AA HONFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Citizen AA
2-2
AWAY South China
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Citizen AA vs South China
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Citizen AA and South China couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2.

Our pre-match lean was South China at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Citizen AA had 50% of the ball to South China's 50%, shots finished 13-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Citizen AA and 1.83 for South China.

What was the final score of Citizen AA vs South China?

Citizen AA 2-2 South China in the Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Citizen AA vs South China?

Before kick-off our model rated an South China win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Citizen AA 28%, draw 26%, South China 46%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (South China) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (South China) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HK2 More Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division
6 Oct 2024
08:30 Yuen Long vs Shatin SA Analysis →
10:30 Sham Shui Po vs Hoi King Analysis →
10:30 WSE vs Tuen Mun SA Analysis →
12:30 Eastern District vs 3 Sing Analysis →
14:30 Central & Western vs Resources Capital FC Analysis →