Nacional de Football 2-1 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-4.0pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.4pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+4.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.7pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 34%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.31/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/0.91
+8% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +30%
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
339 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 16.0
3.4 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional de Football
2W-3D-1L
AWAY CA Penarol
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
04.08.2024 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-1 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
29.03.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
24.01.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-2 HT 0-2 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football HAZ
11.11.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 2-2 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
01.04.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
04.09.2022 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 3-1 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional de Football
2-1
AWAY CA Penarol
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 3
9 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 0
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nacional de Football vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional de Football squeezed past CA Penarol 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 29% / 35%) promised a tight game; Nacional de Football found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nacional de Football had 56% of the ball to CA Penarol's 44%, shots finished 13-3.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Nacional de Football and 1.00 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs CA Penarol?

Nacional de Football 2-1 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 36%, draw 29%, CA Penarol 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional de Football) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nacional de Football) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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