Stade Lavallois 1-0 Caen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 6 Dec 2024

Stade Lavallois
1-0 HT 1-0
Caen
📅06/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2024/2025

Stade Lavallois vs Caen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
39%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.86
Over 2.5
53%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.26
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.69
6+ Goals
11%
15.15
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.69 — our 25% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.66
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.65
X/1
12%
5.53
X/2
15%
6.55
X/X
15%
5.3
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
31.0
2/2
17%
4.63
2/X
6%
15.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.0 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
42%
-7.3pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
38%
Away Win
33%
+5.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
50%
-3.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
50%
+3.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.0pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stade Lavallois v Caen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stade Lavallois EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Caen EU Bookmakers 37%
-5% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.27/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.18
-3% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -30%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
330 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 76%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
22.6 Crosses 19.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2

Stade Lavallois vs Caen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stade Lavallois
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Caen
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.12 xG 1.20
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
282 Passes 412
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.05.2024 Caen Caen 1-0 HT 0-0 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois FR2
02.09.2023 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois 2-1 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR2
28.01.2023 Caen Caen 0-0 HT 0-0 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois FR2
15.10.2022 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois 4-0 HT 2-0 Caen Caen FR2
17.01.2014 Caen Caen 2-1 HT 1-1 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois FR2
09.08.2013 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois 1-2 HT 1-1 Caen Caen FR2

Stade Lavallois 1-0 Caen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stade Lavallois
1-0
AWAY Caen
0.88 xG 1.16
32% Ball Possession 68%
7 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
216 Passes 552
71% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Stade Lavallois vs Caen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stade Lavallois nicked a narrow win over Caen 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Stade Lavallois made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Stade Lavallois had 32% of the ball to Caen's 68%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 0.88 to 1.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caen led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Stade Lavallois and 1.00 for Caen.

What was the final score of Stade Lavallois vs Caen?

Stade Lavallois 1-0 Caen in the France - Ligue 2 on 06/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stade Lavallois vs Caen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Caen win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Stade Lavallois 34%, draw 27%, Caen 38%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Caen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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