Caen 1-0 Stade Lavallois — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.88
No
58%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.7
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.33
6+ Goals
9%
21.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.7 — our 35% vs market 31.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.98
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
15%
4.51
X/2
7%
6.86
X/X
14%
4.06
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
16%
5.37
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-0.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+1.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.6pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caen EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Stade Lavallois EU Bookmakers 31%
+3% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +23%
1.37/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.25
+7% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +13%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
393 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 79%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
21.0 Crosses 17.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caen
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Stade Lavallois
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.00 xG 1.40
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
383 Passes 306
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois 2-1 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR2
28.01.2023 Caen Caen 0-0 HT 0-0 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois FR2
15.10.2022 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois 4-0 HT 2-0 Caen Caen FR2
17.01.2014 Caen Caen 2-1 HT 1-1 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois FR2
09.08.2013 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois 1-2 HT 1-1 Caen Caen FR2
22.02.2013 Caen Caen 2-1 HT 2-1 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caen
1-0
AWAY Stade Lavallois
1.80 xG 0.28
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 8
496 Passes 207
87% Pass Accuracy 69%
25 Box Touches 21
32 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Caen vs Stade Lavallois
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caen squeezed past Stade Lavallois 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Caen as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Caen had 66% of the ball to Stade Lavallois's 34%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 1.80 to 0.28 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Caen's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caen had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Caen and 1.50 for Stade Lavallois.

What was the final score of Caen vs Stade Lavallois?

Caen 1-0 Stade Lavallois in the France - Ligue 2 on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caen vs Stade Lavallois?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caen win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Caen 44%, draw 27%, Stade Lavallois 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caen), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Caen) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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