Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pasto — Team-Based Signals
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 1-0
Deportivo Pasto
KOL
3-2
HT 1-1
Deportivo Pasto
KOL
1-1
HT 0-0
Atletico Nacional
KOL
Atletico Nacional 2-1 Deportivo Pasto — Actual Match Statistics
Atletico Nacional squeezed past Deportivo Pasto 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Atletico Nacional had 67% of the ball to Deportivo Pasto's 33%, shots finished 25-8, expected goals 2.97 to 1.26 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Atletico Nacional's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.67 for Deportivo Pasto.
What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?
Atletico Nacional 2-1 Deportivo Pasto in the Colombia - Primera on 06/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?
Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 48%, draw 29%, Deportivo Pasto 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.