ACR Messina 1-2 Audace Cerignola — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 7 Jan 2024

📅07/01/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.53
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
37%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.59
Over 2.5
38%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.25
2-3 Goals
35%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.97
6+ Goals
9%
30.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
36%
-3.9pp
31%
Draw
30%
+1.2pp
37%
Away Win
35%
+2.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.8pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.9pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ACR Messina EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Audace Cerignola EU Bookmakers 38%
-8% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.04/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.08
-10% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
304 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ACR Messina
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Audace Cerignola
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola 2-2 HT 1-1 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
05.02.2023 ACR Messina ACR Messina 0-1 HT 0-1 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola İTC
08.10.2022 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola 3-0 HT 1-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ACR Messina
1-2
AWAY Audace Cerignola
46% Ball Possession 54%
2 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH ACR Messina vs Audace Cerignola
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Audace Cerignola edged past ACR Messina 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 31% / 37% — and on the day Audace Cerignola made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, ACR Messina had 46% of the ball to Audace Cerignola's 54%, shots finished 2-6.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Audace Cerignola led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for ACR Messina and 2.00 for Audace Cerignola.

What was the final score of ACR Messina vs Audace Cerignola?

ACR Messina 1-2 Audace Cerignola in the Italy - Serie C on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ACR Messina vs Audace Cerignola?

Before kick-off our model rated an Audace Cerignola win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split ACR Messina 32%, draw 31%, Audace Cerignola 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Audace Cerignola) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Audace Cerignola) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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