Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Çaykur Rizespor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Cup, 7 Jan 2025

📅07/01/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
4.04
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
43%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.33
Over 2.5
54%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.89
2-3 Goals
44%
1.95
4-5 Goals
23%
2.84
6+ Goals
10%
7.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
17%
6.91
1/2
7%
20.85
1/X
5%
14.75
X/1
10%
10.0
X/2
14%
4.26
X/X
11%
6.07
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.12
2/X
7%
14.25
Value flag · 1/1 at 6.91 — our 17% vs market 10.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
22%
+12.6pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.0pp
43%
Away Win
55%
-12.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
39%
+7.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
61%
-7.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.6pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Çaykur Rizespor EU Bookmakers 60%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.83/2.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/0.60
+32% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / +81%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
275 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 393 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Çaykur Rizespor
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.03 xG 0.83
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
381 Passes 287
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.01.2024 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 4-0 HT 1-0 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor TSL
01.09.2023 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor 1-0 HT 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
15.01.2022 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 HT 1-0 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor TSL
21.08.2021 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor 0-0 HT 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
03.04.2021 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor 0-0 HT 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
06.12.2020 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 HT 2-1 Çaykur Rizespor Çaykur Rizespor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
1-0
AWAY Çaykur Rizespor
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs Çaykur Rizespor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük nicked a narrow win over Çaykur Rizespor 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Çaykur Rizespor at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Fatih Karagümrük had 42% of the ball to Çaykur Rizespor's 58%, shots finished 10-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fatih Karagümrük had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.33 for Çaykur Rizespor.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs Çaykur Rizespor?

Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Çaykur Rizespor in the Turkey - Cup on 07/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs Çaykur Rizespor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Çaykur Rizespor win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 34%, draw 23%, Çaykur Rizespor 43%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Çaykur Rizespor) ✗ Over 2.5
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