Basel U19 0-2 Bayern München U19 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA - Youth League, 7 Feb 2024

📅07/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
3.08
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
38%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.18
Over Pick
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1
24%
4.29
2-3
37%
1.86
4-5
30%
2.93
6+
9%
8.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.84
1/2
3%
22.45
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
19%
7.31
X/2
14%
4.79
X/X
12%
5.14
2/1
4%
32.0
2/2
20%
2.67
2/X
3%
12.35
Value flag · X/1 at 7.31 — our 19% vs market 9.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
41%
Home Win
29%
+12.3pp
21%
Draw
26%
-4.5pp
38%
Away Win
45%
-7.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.7pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Basel U19 The Market 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern München U19 The Market 49%
+60% / +60% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
2.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.94/2.06
+32% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -34%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
310 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.0
Crosses 25.0
Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Basel U19
0-2
AWAY Bayern München U19
0.43 xG 1.98
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 16
0 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
292 Passes 324
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 35
12 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Basel U19 vs Bayern München U19
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern München U19 saw off Basel U19 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (41% / 21% / 38%) promised a tight game; Bayern München U19 found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Basel U19 had 47% of the ball to Bayern München U19's 53%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 0.43 to 1.98.

What was the final score of Basel U19 vs Bayern München U19?

Basel U19 0-2 Bayern München U19 in the UEFA - Youth League on 07/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Basel U19 vs Bayern München U19?

Before kick-off our model rated a Basel U19 win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Basel U19 41%, draw 21%, Bayern München U19 38%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Basel U19) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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