Paris FC 3-1 Pau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 7 Feb 2025

Paris FC
3-1 HT 1-1
Pau
📅07/02/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2024/2025

Paris FC vs Pau Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.88
2-3 Goals
43%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.01
6+ Goals
10%
9.54
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 24% vs market 19.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.0
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.6
X/1
21%
4.17
X/2
9%
10.6
X/X
10%
5.78
2/1
10%
21.3
2/2
8%
8.27
2/X
9%
16.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-7.4pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.8pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.2pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paris FC v Pau — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paris FC EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Pau EU Bookmakers 22%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +15%
1.68/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.40
-3% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +5%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
436 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
19.8 Crosses 15.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3

Paris FC vs Pau Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paris FC
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Pau
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.18 xG 0.89
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
465 Passes 322
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
09.11.2024 Pau Pau 0-0 HT 0-0 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
10.02.2024 Paris FC Paris FC 1-1 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2
19.08.2023 Pau Pau 2-0 HT 1-0 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
31.01.2023 Paris FC Paris FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2
26.12.2022 Pau Pau 0-1 HT 0-1 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
19.03.2022 Paris FC Paris FC 1-1 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2

Paris FC 3-1 Pau — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paris FC
3-1
AWAY Pau
0.95 xG 0.99
55% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
463 Passes 366
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Paris FC vs Pau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paris FC saw off Pau 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Paris FC as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Paris FC had 55% of the ball to Pau's 45%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.95 to 0.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pau led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Paris FC and 0.83 for Pau.

What was the final score of Paris FC vs Pau?

Paris FC 3-1 Pau in the France - Ligue 2 on 07/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paris FC vs Pau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paris FC win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Paris FC 51%, draw 27%, Pau 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paris FC) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paris FC) ✗ BTTS No
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