Motagua 5-0 Lobos UPNFM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 7 Feb 2025

📅07/02/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.32
Draw
23%
4.81
Away
16%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.06
No
52%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
12%
2/2
5%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
71%
-10.6pp
23%
Draw
18%
+5.2pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+5.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.0pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
2.41/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/2.40
+11% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -12%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
388 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motagua
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Lobos UPNFM
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
6 Corners 10
29.09.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-2 HT 0-2 Motagua Motagua HON
27.07.2024 Motagua Motagua 4-2 HT 1-1 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
15.04.2024 Motagua Motagua 4-0 HT 2-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
19.02.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-2 HT 0-2 Motagua Motagua HON
09.11.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-4 HT 1-3 Motagua Motagua HON
31.07.2023 Motagua Motagua 1-1 HT 0-1 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
POST-MATCH Motagua vs Lobos UPNFM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua swept aside Lobos UPNFM 5-0. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Motagua as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Motagua had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Motagua and 0.67 for Lobos UPNFM.

What was the final score of Motagua vs Lobos UPNFM?

Motagua 5-0 Lobos UPNFM in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 07/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs Lobos UPNFM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Motagua 61%, draw 23%, Lobos UPNFM 16%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motagua), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Motagua) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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