Lobos UPNFM 0-2 Motagua — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒02:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
3.46
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
31%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.85
No
60%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
18%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
26%
+16.7pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
31%
Away Win
47%
-15.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.1pp
40%
BTTS Yes
50%
-10.2pp
60%
BTTS No
50%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Motagua EU Bookmakers 51%
+7% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +7%
0.99/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.13/1.03
-11% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +67% / +1%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
232 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lobos UPNFM
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Motagua
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
10 Corners 6
27.07.2024 Motagua Motagua 4-2 HT 1-1 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
15.04.2024 Motagua Motagua 4-0 HT 2-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
19.02.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-2 HT 0-2 Motagua Motagua HON
09.11.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-4 HT 1-3 Motagua Motagua HON
31.07.2023 Motagua Motagua 1-1 HT 0-1 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
02.03.2023 Motagua Motagua 4-3 HT 2-1 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
POST-MATCH Lobos UPNFM vs Motagua
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua beat Lobos UPNFM 2-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Lobos UPNFM at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Motagua led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lobos UPNFM and 3.17 for Motagua.

What was the final score of Lobos UPNFM vs Motagua?

Lobos UPNFM 0-2 Motagua in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lobos UPNFM vs Motagua?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lobos UPNFM win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Lobos UPNFM 42%, draw 26%, Motagua 31%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Lobos UPNFM) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lobos UPNFM) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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HON More Honduras - National League Apertura
29 Sep 2024
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