Brisbane Roar 1-2 Central Coast Mariners — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 7 Feb 2026

Brisbane Roar
1-2 HT 1-1
Central Coast Mariners
📅07/02/2026 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Australia - A-League – 2025/2026

Brisbane Roar vs Central Coast Mariners Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.6
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.25
6+ Goals
10%
11.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.28
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
16%
4.44
X/2
11%
9.38
X/X
7%
5.23
2/1 EV+ ✗
14%
23.1
2/2
12%
7.24
2/X
7%
15.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.1 — our 14% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Brisbane Roar win — 49%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-3.9pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.4pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+6.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.6pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brisbane Roar v Central Coast Mariners — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Central Coast Mariners EU Bookmakers 25%
-15% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +18%
1.76/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.72
-37% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
388 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 80%
34.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
23.3 Crosses 13.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Brisbane Roar vs Central Coast Mariners Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Central Coast Mariners
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.51 xG 1.26
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
432 Passes 337
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
31.12.2025 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-2 HT 1-1 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
02.05.2025 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-2 HT 1-1 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
03.01.2025 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-3 HT 0-1 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
27.01.2024 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 2-0 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
21.12.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-3 HT 0-1 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
12.11.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-2 HT 1-2 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS

Brisbane Roar 1-2 Central Coast Mariners — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar
1-2
AWAY Central Coast Mariners
0.77 xG 0.59
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 2
265 Passes 385
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 6
12 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar vs Central Coast Mariners
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Central Coast Mariners nicked a narrow win over Brisbane Roar 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Brisbane Roar at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Brisbane Roar had 42% of the ball to Central Coast Mariners's 58%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 0.77 to 0.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Brisbane Roar and 1.83 for Central Coast Mariners.

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Central Coast Mariners?

Brisbane Roar 1-2 Central Coast Mariners in the Australia - A-League on 07/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Central Coast Mariners?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brisbane Roar win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 49%, draw 23%, Central Coast Mariners 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Brisbane Roar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brisbane Roar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVUS More Australia - A-League
7 Feb 2026
07:00 Auckland vs Sydney Analysis →
11:35 Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne City Analysis →