Independiente Medellin 1-2 La Equidad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 7 Feb 2026

📅07/02/2026 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
56%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under
54%
1.75
Over
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.03
No
49%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2-3
40%
4-5
20%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Independiente Medellin win — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
59%
-3.0pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.3pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+2.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
45%
+5.7pp
49%
BTTS No
55%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY La Equidad EU Bookmakers 21%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -13%
1.33/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.25
-1% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -12%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 75%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.4
17.9 Crosses 12.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
2W-3D-1L
AWAY La Equidad
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.35 xG 0.95
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
378 Passes 212
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 11
13 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
23.08.2025 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 3-1 HT 2-0 La Equidad La Equidad KOL
09.03.2025 La Equidad La Equidad 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
06.10.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 0-0 HT 0-0 La Equidad La Equidad KOL
23.03.2024 La Equidad La Equidad 1-2 HT 1-2 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
16.07.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-2 HT 1-1 La Equidad La Equidad KOL
16.02.2023 La Equidad La Equidad 2-1 HT 2-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
1-2
AWAY La Equidad
1.76 xG 0.64
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
353 Passes 178
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
32 Box Touches 12
26 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs La Equidad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

La Equidad squeezed past Independiente Medellin 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

This one beat our numbers. Independiente Medellin carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 64% of the ball to La Equidad's 36%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 1.76 to 0.64 — on chances, Independiente Medellin could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.00 for La Equidad.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs La Equidad?

Independiente Medellin 1-2 La Equidad in the Colombia - Primera on 07/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs La Equidad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 56%, draw 24%, La Equidad 20%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Independiente Medellin), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KOL More Colombia - Primera
7 Feb 2026
02:20 Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Bucaramanga Analysis →
22:00 Aguilas Doradas vs Cucuta Deportivo Analysis →