Estoril 2-2 Tondela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 7 Feb 2026

Estoril
2-2 HT 2-2
Tondela
📅07/02/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2025/2026

Estoril vs Tondela Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.54
2-3 Goals
44%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.28
6+ Goals
9%
11.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.26
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
12%
14.2
X/1
16%
4.35
X/2
7%
9.29
X/X
5%
5.32
2/1
9%
22.7
2/2
10%
7.25
2/X
6%
15.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
54%
+1.0pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.8pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+0.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.2pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Estoril v Tondela — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Tondela EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -6%
1.63/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.52
+30% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 74%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
13.1 Crosses 17.7
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.8

Estoril vs Tondela Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Tondela
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.14 xG 0.86
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
238 Passes 314
72% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
31.08.2025 Tondela Tondela 2-2 HT 0-1 Estoril Estoril POR
19.11.2022 Tondela Tondela 0-0 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril PORLC
12.02.2022 Estoril Estoril 1-0 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POR
21.12.2021 Tondela Tondela 3-1 HT 1-1 Estoril Estoril POK
13.09.2021 Tondela Tondela 1-2 HT 0-2 Estoril Estoril POR
21.10.2018 Estoril Estoril 1-1 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POK

Estoril 2-2 Tondela — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
2-2
AWAY Tondela
0.71 xG 1.35
68% Ball Possession 32%
15 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
581 Passes 234
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Estoril vs Tondela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estoril and Tondela couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Estoril at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Estoril had 68% of the ball to Tondela's 32%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 0.71 to 1.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Estoril had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Estoril and 1.17 for Tondela.

What was the final score of Estoril vs Tondela?

Estoril 2-2 Tondela in the Portugal - Premier League on 07/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril vs Tondela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estoril win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Estoril 55%, draw 23%, Tondela 23%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Estoril) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Estoril) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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