Arouca vs Vitoria Guimaraes Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arouca v Vitoria Guimaraes — Team-Based Signals
Arouca vs Vitoria Guimaraes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-0
Arouca
POR
Arouca 3-2 Vitoria Guimaraes — Actual Match Statistics
Arouca nicked a narrow win over Vitoria Guimaraes 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Vitoria Guimaraes at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Arouca had 51% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 49%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 1.72 to 1.75.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Arouca and 1.50 for Vitoria Guimaraes.
What was the final score of Arouca vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
Arouca 3-2 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 07/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arouca vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Arouca 33%, draw 26%, Vitoria Guimaraes 42%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Under 2.5 went the other way.