Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Vitoria Guimaraes v Arouca — Team-Based Signals
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-0
Arouca
POR
2-2
HT 1-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
Vitoria Guimaraes 1-1 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics
Vitoria Guimaraes and Arouca couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.
Our pre-match lean was Vitoria Guimaraes at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 54% of the ball to Arouca's 46%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 0.35 to 0.46.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.33 for Arouca.
What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Vitoria Guimaraes 1-1 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 48%, draw 30%, Arouca 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) went the other way.