Casa Pia 0-2 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 30 Aug 2025

Casa Pia
0-2 HT 0-2
Nacional
📅30/08/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2025/2026

Casa Pia vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
34%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.42
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
4.49
6+ Goals
8%
24.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.13
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.5
X/1
16%
4.7
X/2
12%
6.55
X/X
14%
3.89
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
15%
5.23
2/X
6%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
43%
-4.1pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.4pp
34%
Away Win
28%
+5.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.4pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Casa Pia v Nacional — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.08/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.16
-19% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 77%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
19.2 Crosses 19.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2

Casa Pia vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casa Pia
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Nacional
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.94 xG 1.06
52% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
245 Passes 269
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
16.03.2025 Nacional Nacional 3-1 HT 1-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
25.10.2024 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR
25.11.2023 Nacional Nacional 0-0 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POK
28.09.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 2-1 HT 0-1 Nacional Nacional PORLC
09.02.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 2-5 HT 0-1 Nacional Nacional POK
19.02.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR2

Casa Pia 0-2 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casa Pia
0-2
AWAY Nacional
0.66 xG 1.29
62% Ball Possession 38%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
356 Passes 205
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
12 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Casa Pia vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional beat Casa Pia 2-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Nacional found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Casa Pia had 62% of the ball to Nacional's 38%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.66 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Casa Pia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Casa Pia and 1.50 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Nacional?

Casa Pia 0-2 Nacional in the Portugal - Premier League on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Casa Pia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 39%, draw 27%, Nacional 34%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Casa Pia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Casa Pia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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