Llanelli Town 3-1 Caerau (Ely) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 7 Mar 2025

📅07/03/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.53
Draw
27%
4.08
Away
17%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
35%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
5%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
61%
-5.4pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.2pp
17%
Away Win
18%
-0.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.7pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Llanelli Town EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Caerau (Ely) EU Bookmakers 21%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
2.06/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.56
-14% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +35%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
351 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Llanelli Town
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Caerau (Ely)
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
11.10.2024 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 1-2 HT 1-1 Llanelli Town Llanelli Town GALFAW
03.11.2023 Llanelli Town Llanelli Town 4-0 HT 4-0 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) GALFAW
27.10.2023 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 1-2 HT 0-0 Llanelli Town Llanelli Town GALFAW
POST-MATCH Llanelli Town vs Caerau (Ely)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Llanelli Town got the better of Caerau (Ely) 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Llanelli Town as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Llanelli Town had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Llanelli Town and 0.67 for Caerau (Ely).

What was the final score of Llanelli Town vs Caerau (Ely)?

Llanelli Town 3-1 Caerau (Ely) in the Wales - FAW Championship on 07/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Llanelli Town vs Caerau (Ely)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Llanelli Town win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Llanelli Town 56%, draw 27%, Caerau (Ely) 17%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Llanelli Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Llanelli Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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