BFC Daugavpils 3-0 FK Tukums 2000 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 7 Mar 2025

📅07/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
Over 2.5
58%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.53
No
43%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-3.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.5pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.1pp
43%
BTTS No
39%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 31%
+22% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -5%
2.13/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.24
+56% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 72%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
15.5 Crosses 20.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
4W-1D-1L
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.59 xG 1.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
228 Passes 315
70% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.09.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
03.07.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 1-2 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
12.05.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-1 HT 2-1 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
30.03.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-1 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
01.09.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 3-0 HT 2-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
26.06.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-1 HT 2-1 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
3-0
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
1.21 xG 0.61
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 8
214 Passes 247
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs FK Tukums 2000
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils ran out comfortable winners over FK Tukums 2000 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had BFC Daugavpils as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (58%) landed while both teams to score (57%) missed.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 47% of the ball to FK Tukums 2000's 53%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.21 to 0.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 1.17 for FK Tukums 2000.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs FK Tukums 2000?

BFC Daugavpils 3-0 FK Tukums 2000 in the Latvia - Virsliga on 07/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs FK Tukums 2000?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 46%, draw 25%, FK Tukums 2000 29%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFC Daugavpils), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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