Chesterfield 2-3 Shrewsbury — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 7 Mar 2026

📅07/03/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
20%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.93
2-3 Goals
41%
1.71
4-5 Goals
22%
3.55
6+ Goals
10%
14.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.39
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.55
X/1
20%
4.32
X/2
7%
8.55
X/X
12%
4.6
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
24.8
2/2
7%
6.88
2/X
6%
14.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.8 — our 13% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
52%
+4.4pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.2pp
20%
Away Win
22%
-2.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.3pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chesterfield EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Shrewsbury EU Bookmakers 25%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.55/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.18
+8% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -20%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
370 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 204 · 63%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
22.2 Crosses 16.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chesterfield
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Shrewsbury
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.50 xG 1.25
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
378 Passes 217
77% Pass Accuracy 65%
12 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 0
20.12.2025 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 0-1 HT 0-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN2
11.03.2017 Chesterfield Chesterfield 1-1 HT 1-1 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury İN1
20.08.2016 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 2-1 HT 1-1 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN1
02.01.2016 Chesterfield Chesterfield 7-1 HT 3-0 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury İN1
18.08.2015 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 1-2 HT 0-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN1
22.01.2011 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 0-0 HT 0-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chesterfield
2-3
AWAY Shrewsbury
2.09 xG 1.51
75% Ball Possession 25%
23 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 1
535 Passes 126
87% Pass Accuracy 59%
44 Box Touches 21
39 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shrewsbury nicked a narrow win over Chesterfield 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Chesterfield at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Chesterfield had 75% of the ball to Shrewsbury's 25%, shots finished 23-14, expected goals 2.09 to 1.51 — the balance of chances actually favoured Chesterfield.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chesterfield had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Chesterfield and 0.83 for Shrewsbury.

What was the final score of Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury?

Chesterfield 2-3 Shrewsbury in the England - 2nd Division on 07/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chesterfield win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Chesterfield 56%, draw 24%, Shrewsbury 20%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Chesterfield), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chesterfield) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
7 Mar 2026
15:30 Salford City vs Barnet Analysis →
15:30 Grimsby Town vs Bromley Analysis →
18:00 Bristol Rovers vs Crewe Alexandra Analysis →
18:00 Crawley Town vs Swindon Town Analysis →
18:00 Gillingham vs Fleetwood Town Analysis →
18:00 Milton Keynes Dons vs Harrogate Town Analysis →