Milton Keynes Dons 4-1 Harrogate Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 7 Mar 2026

📅07/03/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.42
Draw
20%
4.34
Away
14%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.67
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
2.99
6+ Goals
10%
9.79
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 27% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.68
1/2
3%
34.0
1/X
6%
17.65
X/1
20%
3.8
X/2
5%
14.1
X/X
10%
6.33
2/1
9%
22.25
2/2
6%
12.05
2/X
4%
20.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
66%
+0.1pp
20%
Draw
20%
-0.2pp
14%
Away Win
14%
+0.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.2pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 17%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +2%
1.48/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.58
-2% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +19%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
329 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 195 · 62%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
18.0 Crosses 15.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
4W-0D-1L
AWAY Harrogate Town
3.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
2.24 xG 0.95
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
400 Passes 265
76% Pass Accuracy 71%
31 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.12.2025 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 0-4 HT 0-3 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
28.01.2025 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 HT 1-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
01.10.2024 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 1-5 HT 0-3 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
20.04.2024 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 3-5 HT 2-2 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
30.09.2023 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 0-1 HT 0-1 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
4-1
AWAY Harrogate Town
1.77 xG 0.80
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
361 Passes 261
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
31 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Milton Keynes Dons vs Harrogate Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons swept aside Harrogate Town 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Milton Keynes Dons as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Milton Keynes Dons had 57% of the ball to Harrogate Town's 43%, shots finished 17-15, expected goals 1.77 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Milton Keynes Dons had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 3.20 goals for Milton Keynes Dons and 1.20 for Harrogate Town.

What was the final score of Milton Keynes Dons vs Harrogate Town?

Milton Keynes Dons 4-1 Harrogate Town in the England - 2nd Division on 07/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milton Keynes Dons vs Harrogate Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Milton Keynes Dons 66%, draw 20%, Harrogate Town 14%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✗ BTTS No
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