Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 Harrogate Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 28 Jan 2025

📅28/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.91
Over 2.5
45%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.22
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.31
6+ Goals
10%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 30% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.29
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.35
X/1
20%
4.22
X/2
12%
8.76
X/X
14%
5.14
2/1
7%
23.0
2/2
7%
6.97
2/X
7%
15.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-5.7pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.6pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.5pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 25%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.48/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.34
+17% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
325 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 226 · 67%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
14.6 Crosses 14.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Harrogate Town
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.43 xG 0.73
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
470 Passes 286
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
33 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
01.10.2024 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 1-5 HT 0-3 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
20.04.2024 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 3-5 HT 2-2 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
30.09.2023 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 0-1 HT 0-1 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
2-1
AWAY Harrogate Town
0.76 xG 2.24
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
369 Passes 243
79% Pass Accuracy 69%
12 Box Touches 41
12 Crosses 28
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Milton Keynes Dons vs Harrogate Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons squeezed past Harrogate Town 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Milton Keynes Dons as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Milton Keynes Dons had 56% of the ball to Harrogate Town's 44%, shots finished 10-22, expected goals 0.76 to 2.24 — the balance of chances actually favoured Harrogate Town.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Milton Keynes Dons had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Milton Keynes Dons and 1.67 for Harrogate Town.

What was the final score of Milton Keynes Dons vs Harrogate Town?

Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 Harrogate Town in the England - 2nd Division on 28/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milton Keynes Dons vs Harrogate Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Milton Keynes Dons 48%, draw 27%, Harrogate Town 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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