Harrogate Town 1-5 Milton Keynes Dons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 1 Oct 2024

📅01/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.46
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
46%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.9
Over 2.5
54%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.36
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
3.52
6+ Goals
11%
13.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.74
1/2
6%
24.0
1/X
8%
14.75
X/1
12%
7.61
X/2
18%
4.23
X/X
9%
4.96
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.55
2/X
6%
14.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 6% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
26%
+5.5pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.7pp
46%
Away Win
50%
-3.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
49%
-3.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
51%
+3.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.9pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 54%
-1% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -10%
1.17/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.01/0.92
+9% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -13%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
226 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 75%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
17.5 Crosses 17.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Harrogate Town
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.78 xG 2.13
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 22
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
297 Passes 560
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 37
10 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 3
20.04.2024 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 3-5 HT 2-2 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
30.09.2023 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 0-1 HT 0-1 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Harrogate Town
1-5
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
0.62 xG 3.02
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 5
265 Passes 292
69% Pass Accuracy 71%
16 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 16
POST-MATCH Harrogate Town vs Milton Keynes Dons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons ran out comfortable winners over Harrogate Town 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Milton Keynes Dons as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Harrogate Town had 49% of the ball to Milton Keynes Dons's 51%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 0.62 to 3.02.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Harrogate Town and 2.50 for Milton Keynes Dons.

What was the final score of Harrogate Town vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Harrogate Town 1-5 Milton Keynes Dons in the England - 2nd Division on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Harrogate Town vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Harrogate Town 31%, draw 23%, Milton Keynes Dons 46%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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