Carlisle United 0-2 Notts County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 1 Oct 2024

Carlisle United
0-2 HT 0-2
Notts County
📅01/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Carlisle United vs Notts County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
36%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.09
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.07
6+ Goals
10%
9.78
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.09 — our 27% vs market 19.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.68
1/2
8%
26.0
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1
11%
5.86
X/2
11%
5.64
X/X
13%
5.03
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
16%
3.49
2/X
7%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.0pp
35%
Away Win
37%
-1.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.0pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Carlisle United v Notts County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Notts County EU Bookmakers 40%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +11%
1.20/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.68
-4% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / -19%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
309 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 72%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
19.3 Crosses 15.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

Carlisle United vs Notts County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carlisle United
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Notts County
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
The Meetings
12.03.2019 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-3 HT 0-1 Notts County Notts County İN2
27.11.2018 Notts County Notts County 1-1 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
13.02.2018 Notts County Notts County 2-1 HT 2-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
21.10.2017 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-1 HT 1-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
08.04.2017 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-2 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
31.12.2016 Notts County Notts County 2-3 HT 2-2 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2

Carlisle United 0-2 Notts County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carlisle United
0-2
AWAY Notts County
1.67 xG 1.02
50% Ball Possession 50%
21 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
14 Corners 3
426 Passes 443
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
39 Box Touches 12
43 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Carlisle United vs Notts County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Notts County saw off Carlisle United 2-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Notts County made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Carlisle United had 50% of the ball to Notts County's 50%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 1.67 to 1.02 — the balance of chances actually favoured Carlisle United.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Notts County led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Carlisle United and 1.83 for Notts County.

What was the final score of Carlisle United vs Notts County?

Carlisle United 0-2 Notts County in the England - 2nd Division on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carlisle United vs Notts County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carlisle United win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 38%, draw 26%, Notts County 35%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Carlisle United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Carlisle United) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
1 Oct 2024
21:45 Newport County vs Salford City Analysis →
21:45 Harrogate Town vs Milton Keynes Dons Analysis →
21:45 Bromley vs Chesterfield Analysis →
21:45 Cheltenham Town vs Accrington Stanley Analysis →
21:45 Tranmere Rovers vs Swindon Town Analysis →
21:45 Gillingham vs Grimsby Town Analysis →