Gillingham 0-1 Grimsby Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 1 Oct 2024

📅01/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.16
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.71
6+ Goals
9%
15.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 32% vs market 26.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.82
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.4
X/1
16%
4.52
X/2
9%
7.02
X/X
12%
4.54
2/1
13%
25.5
2/2
10%
5.25
2/X
8%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-1.4pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.4pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-1.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.2pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gillingham EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 31%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.65/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.32
+9% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
266 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 68%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
23.3 Crosses 18.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gillingham
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Grimsby Town
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.19 xG 0.74
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
226 Passes 231
62% Pass Accuracy 64%
26 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2024 Gillingham Gillingham 1-1 HT 1-1 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
02.09.2023 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 2-0 HT 2-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
14.02.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 2-1 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
13.09.2022 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
21.03.2009 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 3-0 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
06.09.2008 Gillingham Gillingham 3-0 HT 1-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gillingham
0-1
AWAY Grimsby Town
1.56 xG 0.46
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
359 Passes 194
76% Pass Accuracy 64%
24 Box Touches 8
33 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Gillingham vs Grimsby Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grimsby Town squeezed past Gillingham 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Gillingham at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Gillingham had 62% of the ball to Grimsby Town's 38%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 1.56 to 0.46 — the balance of chances actually favoured Gillingham.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Gillingham and 1.33 for Grimsby Town.

What was the final score of Gillingham vs Grimsby Town?

Gillingham 0-1 Grimsby Town in the England - 2nd Division on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gillingham vs Grimsby Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gillingham win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gillingham 45%, draw 29%, Grimsby Town 26%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Gillingham) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gillingham) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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