Cheltenham Town 2-1 Accrington Stanley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 1 Oct 2024

📅01/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.19
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
26%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.23
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.64
6+ Goals
10%
14.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.64 — our 25% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.21
1/2
5%
32.5
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
15%
4.97
X/2
9%
6.25
X/X
16%
4.5
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
12%
4.43
2/X
7%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.5pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.7pp
26%
Away Win
31%
-5.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.2pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Accrington Stanley EU Bookmakers 34%
+3% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -10%
1.48/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.42
+13% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -19%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
262 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 73%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
19.2 Crosses 20.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cheltenham Town
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Accrington Stanley
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.63 xG 1.25
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
199 Passes 201
59% Pass Accuracy 60%
30 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.02.2023 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN1
17.09.2022 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 1-0 HT 1-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN1
02.04.2022 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 4-4 HT 2-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN1
16.10.2021 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN1
01.12.2018 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 3-1 HT 0-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town FAK
13.01.2018 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cheltenham Town
2-1
AWAY Accrington Stanley
1.77 xG 0.70
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
133 Passes 196
46% Pass Accuracy 58%
14 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cheltenham Town vs Accrington Stanley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cheltenham Town squeezed past Accrington Stanley 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Cheltenham Town as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Cheltenham Town had 45% of the ball to Accrington Stanley's 55%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.77 to 0.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Accrington Stanley led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cheltenham Town and 1.67 for Accrington Stanley.

What was the final score of Cheltenham Town vs Accrington Stanley?

Cheltenham Town 2-1 Accrington Stanley in the England - 2nd Division on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cheltenham Town vs Accrington Stanley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cheltenham Town win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Cheltenham Town 44%, draw 30%, Accrington Stanley 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cheltenham Town), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cheltenham Town) ✓ BTTS Yes
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