Newport County 3-1 Salford City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 1 Oct 2024

Newport County
3-1 HT 2-0
Salford City
📅01/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Newport County vs Salford City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.41
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.48
6+ Goals
11%
13.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.65
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
25.5
1/X
9%
13.35
X/1
10%
6.57
X/2
10%
4.82
X/X
8%
4.69
2/1
9%
33.0
2/2
21%
3.01
2/X
8%
13.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 11% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
30%
+2.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
43%
Away Win
43%
-0.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.5pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newport County v Salford City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport County EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Salford City EU Bookmakers 48%
-5% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +11%
1.24/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.26
-21% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +12%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
274 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 72%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
20.8 Crosses 20.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8

Newport County vs Salford City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport County
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Salford City
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.13 xG 1.76
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
213 Passes 337
64% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.04.2024 Newport County Newport County 0-1 HT 0-0 Salford City Salford City İN2
30.09.2023 Salford City Salford City 2-1 HT 2-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
04.03.2023 Salford City Salford City 3-1 HT 1-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
16.08.2022 Newport County Newport County 2-3 HT 0-0 Salford City Salford City İN2
08.01.2022 Newport County Newport County 0-2 HT 0-1 Salford City Salford City İN2
28.08.2021 Salford City Salford City 3-0 HT 3-0 Newport County Newport County İN2

Newport County 3-1 Salford City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newport County
3-1
AWAY Salford City
1.56 xG 0.62
37% Ball Possession 63%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
191 Passes 385
69% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Newport County vs Salford City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport County saw off Salford City 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Salford City at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Newport County had 37% of the ball to Salford City's 63%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.56 to 0.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salford City led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Newport County and 2.33 for Salford City.

What was the final score of Newport County vs Salford City?

Newport County 3-1 Salford City in the England - 2nd Division on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport County vs Salford City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Salford City win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Newport County 33%, draw 24%, Salford City 43%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Salford City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Salford City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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