Newport County 0-1 Salford City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 20 Apr 2024

Newport County
0-1 HT 0-0
Salford City
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Newport County vs Salford City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.29
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
43%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.06
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.09
6+ Goals
10%
9.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.32
1/2
7%
22.7
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
10%
7.65
X/2
16%
4.52
X/X
11%
5.29
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.56
2/X
8%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
27%
+1.8pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.9pp
44%
Away Win
48%
-4.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.1pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newport County v Salford City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport County EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Salford City EU Bookmakers 52%
+7% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -13%
1.30/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.16
-8% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
265 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 74%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
19.3 Crosses 18.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.8

Newport County vs Salford City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport County
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Salford City
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.10 xG 1.47
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
216 Passes 320
63% Pass Accuracy 71%
19 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.09.2023 Salford City Salford City 2-1 HT 2-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
04.03.2023 Salford City Salford City 3-1 HT 1-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
16.08.2022 Newport County Newport County 2-3 HT 0-0 Salford City Salford City İN2
08.01.2022 Newport County Newport County 0-2 HT 0-1 Salford City Salford City İN2
28.08.2021 Salford City Salford City 3-0 HT 3-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
16.01.2021 Newport County Newport County 0-0 HT 0-0 Salford City Salford City İN2

Newport County 0-1 Salford City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newport County
0-1
AWAY Salford City
0.41 xG 2.23
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
123 Passes 302
49% Pass Accuracy 70%
10 Box Touches 30
5 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Newport County vs Salford City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salford City nicked a narrow win over Newport County 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Salford City as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Newport County had 36% of the ball to Salford City's 64%, shots finished 6-18, expected goals 0.41 to 2.23 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Salford City's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salford City led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Newport County and 2.17 for Salford City.

What was the final score of Newport County vs Salford City?

Newport County 0-1 Salford City in the England - 2nd Division on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport County vs Salford City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Salford City win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Newport County 29%, draw 28%, Salford City 44%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Salford City), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Salford City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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