Mansfield Town 2-1 Gillingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.43
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
3.46
6+ Goals
11%
13.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.57
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.45
X/1
15%
4.37
X/2
6%
7.77
X/X
11%
4.8
2/1 EV+ ✓
9%
24.0
2/2
16%
5.75
2/X
6%
14.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-2.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.8pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mansfield Town EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Gillingham EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -8%
1.49/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.05
+1% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
321 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 67%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
22.7 Crosses 16.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mansfield Town
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Gillingham
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.89 xG 1.02
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
231 Passes 200
64% Pass Accuracy 59%
30 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.09.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 1-1 HT 1-1 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town İN2
11.02.2023 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 2-0 HT 2-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
17.09.2022 Gillingham Gillingham 0-2 HT 0-2 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mansfield Town
2-1
AWAY Gillingham
2.04 xG 0.46
60% Ball Possession 40%
21 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 5
437 Passes 237
80% Pass Accuracy 66%
38 Box Touches 16
27 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mansfield Town vs Gillingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mansfield Town squeezed past Gillingham 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Mansfield Town as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Mansfield Town had 60% of the ball to Gillingham's 40%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 2.04 to 0.46 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Mansfield Town's control.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Mansfield Town had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Mansfield Town and 0.33 for Gillingham.

What was the final score of Mansfield Town vs Gillingham?

Mansfield Town 2-1 Gillingham in the England - 2nd Division on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mansfield Town vs Gillingham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mansfield Town win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Mansfield Town 47%, draw 25%, Gillingham 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mansfield Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mansfield Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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