Harrogate Town 3-5 Milton Keynes Dons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.18
Over 2.5
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.27
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
2.99
6+ Goals
12%
9.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.43
1/2
7%
23.15
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
8%
6.73
X/2
14%
4.95
X/X
14%
5.33
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
30.0
2/2
19%
2.88
2/X
7%
12.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.0 — our 11% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.1pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.9pp
39%
Away Win
44%
-4.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.7pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 48%
-2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -11%
1.33/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.28
+5% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -25%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
268 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 74%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
18.0 Crosses 17.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Harrogate Town
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.30 xG 0.96
34% Ball Possession 66%
3 Total Shots 27
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 11
258 Passes 578
72% Pass Accuracy 85%
9 Box Touches 43
5 Crosses 40
1 Yellow Cards 3
30.09.2023 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 0-1 HT 0-1 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Harrogate Town
3-5
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.26 xG 3.30
40% Ball Possession 60%
16 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 5
336 Passes 541
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 17
POST-MATCH Harrogate Town vs Milton Keynes Dons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons got the better of Harrogate Town 5-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 28% / 39% — and on the day Milton Keynes Dons made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Harrogate Town had 40% of the ball to Milton Keynes Dons's 60%, shots finished 16-16, expected goals 1.26 to 3.30.

What was the final score of Harrogate Town vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Harrogate Town 3-5 Milton Keynes Dons in the England - 2nd Division on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Harrogate Town vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Harrogate Town 33%, draw 28%, Milton Keynes Dons 39%. The final score 3-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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