Doncaster Rovers 4-2 Barrow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.27
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.6
6+ Goals
10%
14.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.27 — our 31% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.0
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
14%
4.74
X/2
11%
6.59
X/X
16%
4.6
2/1
11%
26.0
2/2
14%
4.76
2/X
6%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-2.9pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.4pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.8pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Doncaster Rovers EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Barrow EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +8%
1.49/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.31
+0% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
303 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 73%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
20.5 Crosses 19.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Doncaster Rovers
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Barrow
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.66 xG 1.13
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
338 Passes 245
73% Pass Accuracy 66%
16 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2023 Barrow Barrow 3-2 HT 1-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
14.02.2023 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 1-0 HT 1-0 Barrow Barrow İN2
13.09.2022 Barrow Barrow 2-0 HT 1-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Doncaster Rovers
4-2
AWAY Barrow
3.29 xG 0.69
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
373 Passes 183
79% Pass Accuracy 66%
26 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Doncaster Rovers vs Barrow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Doncaster Rovers got the better of Barrow 4-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Doncaster Rovers as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Doncaster Rovers had 62% of the ball to Barrow's 38%, shots finished 12-5, expected goals 3.29 to 0.69.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Barrow led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Doncaster Rovers and 1.67 for Barrow.

What was the final score of Doncaster Rovers vs Barrow?

Doncaster Rovers 4-2 Barrow in the England - 2nd Division on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Doncaster Rovers vs Barrow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Doncaster Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Doncaster Rovers 42%, draw 29%, Barrow 29%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Doncaster Rovers) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Doncaster Rovers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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