Crewe Alexandra 0-3 Wrexham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 20 Apr 2024

Crewe Alexandra
0-3 HT 0-2
Wrexham
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Crewe Alexandra vs Wrexham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.42
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.47
6+ Goals
9%
13.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 31% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.96
1/2
7%
24.85
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
13%
6.88
X/2
21%
4.62
X/X
10%
4.78
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
16%
2.85
2/X
8%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+1.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
44%
Away Win
45%
-0.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.9pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Crewe Alexandra v Wrexham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crewe Alexandra EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Wrexham EU Bookmakers 49%
+13% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.14/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.33
+28% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
290 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 71%
14.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
17.0 Crosses 19.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9

Crewe Alexandra vs Wrexham Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crewe Alexandra
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Wrexham
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.38 xG 1.69
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
433 Passes 300
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 25
22 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.10.2023 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 0-3 HT 0-2 Wrexham Wrexham İNTK
30.09.2023 Wrexham Wrexham 3-3 HT 1-2 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
27.07.2019 Wrexham Wrexham 0-1 HT 0-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra HAZ

Crewe Alexandra 0-3 Wrexham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crewe Alexandra
0-3
AWAY Wrexham
0.22 xG 2.09
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 27
2 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 6
309 Passes 443
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
10 Box Touches 33
21 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Crewe Alexandra vs Wrexham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wrexham ran out comfortable winners over Crewe Alexandra 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Wrexham as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Crewe Alexandra had 44% of the ball to Wrexham's 56%, shots finished 7-27, expected goals 0.22 to 2.09.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Crewe Alexandra and 2.00 for Wrexham.

What was the final score of Crewe Alexandra vs Wrexham?

Crewe Alexandra 0-3 Wrexham in the England - 2nd Division on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crewe Alexandra vs Wrexham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Wrexham win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Crewe Alexandra 30%, draw 25%, Wrexham 44%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wrexham), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Wrexham) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
20 Apr 2024
17:00 Doncaster Rovers vs Barrow Analysis →
17:00 Mansfield Town vs Gillingham Analysis →
17:00 Stockport County vs Accrington Stanley Analysis →
17:00 Walsall vs Bradford City Analysis →
17:00 Newport County vs Salford City Analysis →
17:00 Harrogate Town vs Milton Keynes Dons Analysis →