Notts County 1-0 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 28 Jan 2025

Notts County
1-0 HT 1-0
Carlisle United
📅28/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Notts County vs Carlisle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
22%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.15
Over 2.5
44%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.75
No
58%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.93
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
2.89
6+ Goals
10%
8.81
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.93 — our 30% vs market 19.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.92
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.55
X/1
20%
4.06
X/2
8%
11.0
X/X
12%
6.18
2/1
9%
20.65
2/2
9%
8.67
2/X
6%
17.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-7.0pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.4pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
43%
+13.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
57%
-13.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
53%
-11.2pp
58%
BTTS No
47%
+11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Notts County v Carlisle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Notts County EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 21%
+5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +3%
2.03/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.26
+42% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +0%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
380 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 68%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
20.3 Crosses 16.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5

Notts County vs Carlisle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Notts County
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Carlisle United
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.02 xG 1.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
443 Passes 426
86% Pass Accuracy 88%
12 Box Touches 39
13 Crosses 43
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
01.10.2024 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-2 HT 0-2 Notts County Notts County İN2
12.03.2019 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-3 HT 0-1 Notts County Notts County İN2
27.11.2018 Notts County Notts County 1-1 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
13.02.2018 Notts County Notts County 2-1 HT 2-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
21.10.2017 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-1 HT 1-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
08.04.2017 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-2 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN2

Notts County 1-0 Carlisle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Notts County
1-0
AWAY Carlisle United
0.80 xG 0.72
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
438 Passes 458
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 15
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Notts County vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Notts County squeezed past Carlisle United 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Notts County as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Notts County had 49% of the ball to Carlisle United's 51%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.80 to 0.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Notts County had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Notts County and 0.83 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of Notts County vs Carlisle United?

Notts County 1-0 Carlisle United in the England - 2nd Division on 28/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Notts County vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Notts County win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Notts County 54%, draw 24%, Carlisle United 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Notts County), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Notts County) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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