Villarreal II 2-1 Burgos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.38
Draw
33%
3.04
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.8
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.17
6+ Goals
9%
20.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 31% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.71
1/2
7%
33.5
1/X
7%
12.7
X/1
12%
5.39
X/2
13%
5.8
X/X
20%
3.96
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
14%
4.12
2/X
6%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
39%
-5.3pp
33%
Draw
30%
+2.8pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+2.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.5pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal II EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Burgos EU Bookmakers 34%
+6% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -10%
1.80/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.10
+28% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -7%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
330 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 80%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
15.8 Crosses 18.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal II
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Burgos
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.87 xG 0.85
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
420 Passes 251
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
15.10.2023 Burgos Burgos 3-2 HT 0-0 Villarreal II Villarreal II İS2
01.05.2023 Burgos Burgos 1-0 HT 1-0 Villarreal II Villarreal II İS2
01.10.2022 Villarreal II Villarreal II 0-0 HT 0-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal II
2-1
AWAY Burgos
1.61 xG 1.07
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
291 Passes 432
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 32
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Villarreal II vs Burgos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal II nicked a narrow win over Burgos 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 33% / 34% — and on the day Villarreal II made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Villarreal II had 42% of the ball to Burgos's 58%, shots finished 14-20, expected goals 1.61 to 1.07.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Burgos led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Villarreal II and 1.33 for Burgos.

What was the final score of Villarreal II vs Burgos?

Villarreal II 2-1 Burgos in the Spain - 2nd Division on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal II vs Burgos?

Before kick-off our model rated an Burgos win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Villarreal II 33%, draw 33%, Burgos 34%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Burgos) ✗ Under 2.5
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